Investment Theses

These pages are how I think about the technologies I have put my own money behind. They are personal investment theses, not stock recommendations and not research reports. Each one sets out what I believe, why I believe it, the evidence as it stands, the strongest argument against my view, and what would change my mind.

Every page is built around the same chain:

1. A technology succeeds.

2. Economic value is created.

3. A company captures some of that value.

4. Shareholders may or may not capture attractive returns.

5. How much of my capital does that uncertainty deserve?

Each link has to hold before an investment works, and none of them guarantees the next. A technology can change the world and still reward its investors poorly. Most of the thinking on these pages happens in that gap between importance and returns.

Why these six? Because they are the areas where I have concluded the structural change is real, the horizon is long, and I can hold a view worth writing down and defending in public. They are also connected: intelligence, the machines it will drive, the compute underneath both, who owns that compute, where infrastructure goes next, and what the same pattern looks like in medicine.

Two honest warnings before you read. The evidence changes. Numbers get refreshed as new quarters arrive, and a statistic that supports an argument today can weaken it tomorrow. And the companies change. A thesis is a view about where value accumulates, not a permanent attachment to a ticker, so the positions that express each view can move while the thesis holds. The portfolio behind these pages is public, and it moves.