Tony Mai · Investment research & commentary
Investment thinking, market commentary and lessons from the portfolio.
Insights from managing a public investment portfolio — covering the companies, technologies and market shifts shaping my long-term strategy.
01 — The latest
In June 2026 I published the case for not buying the SpaceX IPO — then started buying the next trading session. The full decision record: the no that was really a price condition, the early buys that broke my own rule, the collapse that made my $142 average, and the objection I never resolved.
Read this Insight02 — The library
Newest first. Each one stands on its own.
In summer 2025 I traded Tesla's robotaxi launch almost exactly to a plan announced in advance — and made three percent. The full anatomy of an event trade: the pre-commitment, the luck I didn't earn, the prediction that missed, and what event trading honestly pays.
The macro framework behind the whole portfolio — why liquidity sits underneath every position, how rates influence its flow, and what the record from 2025–2026 taught me about where the framework works — and where it doesn't.
Tesla has been at or near the top of my portfolio for most of two years. This is the part almost nobody writes down: not the thesis, but the handling — the trims, the reloads, the 18% concentration cut, and the rule that the thesis decides whether a position exists while the market decides how big it gets to be.
In September 2025 I put 10% of the portfolio into Bitcoin with a target, an expiry date and a label written before entry. The trade made roughly nothing — and preparing this article uncovered an arithmetic error my own rules quietly paid for.
A dated public record of the April 2025 tariff crash: the copier briefing written at maximum fear, fresh capital deposited into the fall, the Palantir buy at $67 — and why position sizing, not prediction, made every decision possible.
